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Seeking Alpha 2023-02-22 17:57:00

Coinbase stock swings between gains and losses as analysts parse Q4 results

Coinbase Global ( NASDAQ: COIN ) stock slid 5.7% in Wednesday early afternoon trading, after climbing as much as 8% earlier in the session, as sell-side analysts assessed the cryptocurrency exchange's mixed fourth-quarter results . Hurt by a lingering market downturn, Coinbase's ( COIN ) transaction revenues plunged 86% to $322M Y/Y in Q4, and total average daily volume dropped 73% to $1.6B from a year ago. There were, however, some bright spots. For example, subscription and services sales drove higher by 33% Y/Y to $282.8M thanks to higher interest income. That, in addition to its cost-cutting efforts, helped the company's profit and sales come in slightly above Wall Street expectations. Raymond James analyst Patrick O'Shaughnessy now expects Coinbase ( COIN ) to be adjusted EBITDA positive in 2023, as its year-to-date ADV of around $1.7B gained 6% from the prior quarter, he wrote in a note, coinciding with a broader "comeback" in crypto prices. Overall, though, he maintained his Underperform rating on COIN. While its quarterly results were generally stronger than feared, "regulatory uncertainty will continue to present headline risks not just for COIN but for the whole industry," Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau, who also viewed COIN with an Outperform rating, wrote in a note. In recent weeks, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has indirectly targeted three of Coinbase's ( COIN ) business lines -- stablecoins, staking and custody -- as part of the regulator's quest to control the emerging space. See why SA contributor The Digital Trend reckoned the SEC's crackdown on crypto is a positive development for COIN. "I believe this [regulation] is a good thing for the space and that it will ultimately benefit Coinbase ( COIN )" as more bad actors get weeded out, CEO and Co-Founder Brian Armstrong said during the company's Q4 earnings conference . "We need more clarity in the United States around regulation, and we probably need new legislation at some point." The intraday slide in COIN also comes as bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) and other major tokens pulled back ahead of the Federal Reserve's minutes of its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting, at which the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee lifted rates by just 25 basis points. In May 2022, SA flagged COIN at high risk of performing badly due to negative EPS revisions and declining growth .

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